Player X…(RBs)

20 08 2010

(The Fantasy Guys…FQ)

There is one key to any fantasy draft in any sport. This one important key is subject to opinion. This one key is subject to criticism or praise. This one key is laughed at or taken way too seriously.

But this one key is undoubtedly and inarguably the most important thing in any fantasy draft. This crucial key is your fantasy football server’s RANKINGS.

Think about it…every league’s draft is based off the player rankings that server (yahoo, espn, rotoworld, etc) sets before your anticipated d-day. Now it doesn’t mean that manager’s do not make selections based off their own rankings and thoughts on how good a player is. However, the rankings in your league are the base for everybody. And in some way managers base everything they do in a draft off these rankings.

The moral of the story is…KNOW YOUR LEAGUE’S RANKINGS inside and out and use them to your advantage.

To further explain how to make the rankings work for you…lets play the famous game of PLAYER X using the 2009-10 season stats.

Focus: Running Backs (Using Yahoo’s Rankings)

Round 1

Player A: (RK-12) In 13 games 1117 Rushing yards for 7 tds/29 rec for 252 yards.

Player B: (RK-43) In 15 games 828 Rushing yards for 10 tds/51 rec for 336 yards for 3 tds.

Player A is DeAngelo Williams and his Average Draft Postion (ADP) is early in the 2nd round. Player B is Joseph Addai who is getting drafted in the 5th round on average. Williams  sometimes gets picked in the first round of drafts and is a solid running back when healthy. No knocking on D-Will, but let’s look at the production here. Addai may not beat out Williams when it comes to rushing, but he has shown a better ability to rack up more receptions, rec yards and scoring rec tds. Not to mention Addai’s 10 rushing tds last season, which are nothing to sneeze at. Williams also has the younger and hungry Jonathan Stewart licking his chops to vulture tds and touches away from D-Will. Addai has the Sophomore Donald Brown who wasn’t and still isn’t anywhere near threating Joseph’s starting role. Your Player X should be Addai and use your late first round/early second round pick on someone else other than Williams.

Round 2

Player A: (RK-23) In 13 games 1251 Rushing yards for 6 tds/17 rec for 111 yards.

Player B: (RK-63) In 16 games 929 Rushing yards for 4 tds/57 rec for471 yards.

Player A is Cedric Benson and on average he is getting drafted early in the 3rd round. Player B is Matt Forte who is going early in the 7th round. Check this stat out, in 5 seasons of play Benson has scored 18 total tds (0 rec), while in 2 seasons Forte has scored 16 totals tds (4 rec). While everybody has been really upset over Forte’s 09-10 season, the only down part was not getting in the end-zone much. Besides that Forte had a solid all-around year, while Benson finally had an above average year. With Owens, Ocho-Cinco and Bryant now on the Bengals, you have to figure that Benson will suffer with his production. On the other hand Forte seems prime to catch another 50 balls and get back in the end-zone more than 4 times. Take Forte later on and use your 3rd round pick on something more useful than Benson.

Round 3

Player A: (RK-22) In 14 games 793 Rushing yards for 6 tds/39 rec for 302 yards for 2 tds.

Player B: (RK-47) In 16 games 947 Rushing yards for 7 tds/28 rec for 213 yards for 2 tds.

Player A is Pierre Thomas and is going early in the 3rd round. Player B is Knowshon Moreno who is going late in the 5th round. Now I love Pierre Thomas (that waiver wire add in 08 did wonders) but I got my sights on other things in round 3 and you should too. Listen Thomas is due for a big year with Mike Bell gone and Bush constantly getting injured. However, Bush is still around and still will take touches and catches and tds away from Thomas every so often. Plus Drew Brees has to put up his usual monster numbers that exclude Thomas being involved. Moreno on the other hand is the focal point and not an after-thought in the Broncos offense. Moreno had an above average rookie season and with Marshall gone, the offense will turn to Moreno to handle most of the load. Taking Moreno 2 rounds later for similar or better production than Thomas is the smarter move.

Round 4

Player A: (RK-28) In 16 games 793 Rushing yards for 7 tds/12 rec for 143 yards.

Player B: (RK-80) In 14 games 862 Rushing yards for 5 tds/34 rec for 220 yards for 2 tds.

Player A is Beanie Wells who currently is going late in the 3rd round. Player B is Jerome Harrison who is going in the 9th round. While the production is very similar the scary part that isn’t shown is that Harrison only started 4 of the 14 games he played in. In all 4 of those starts Harrison had over 120+ yards rushing. While Wells might be leaned on a little more this upcoming season with Matt Leinart in as QB, he still has a stubborn hand-cuff in Tim Hightower, who goes out and catches 60 balls a season. Hightower, who is currently slated to start had 8 tds last year and all of them were on the ground. Wells and Hightower will be a true 50-50 split, while Harrison can be the feature back in Cleveland with Jamal Lewis gone and Montario Hardesty injured in training camp. Did I mention Harrison is going 6 rounds later than Wells and basically a flier pick. Take Harrison late and use your 3rd round pick on something better than Wells.

Frank “Da Tank” Qasim
-Live & Think Outside the Box

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